In February 2016, Donald Trump won the New Hampshire and South Carolina Republican presidential primaries as well as the Nevada caucuses. His takeover of the Republican party was well underway. That same month, however, a small band of Republican political operatives and conservative intellectuals began to organize a resistance movement. By the end of that month, the hashtag #nevertrump was the top worldwide trend on Twitter. As a political effort, Never Trump ultimately failed to prevent the alt-right populist conquest of the GOP, causing critics and skeptics to declare it a failure. But as a movement it has endured and…


Highly respected, former Republican, principled conservative, Max Boot, recently argued that “those of us on the center-right can’t afford a third-party flirtation. We need to become Biden Republicans.” Opinion | Center-right voters need to become Biden Republicans, because the GOP can’t be saved — The Washington Post Leaders like Bill Kristol What About Joe? — The Bulwark and Tim Miller The Trade: Meet the New Red Dog Democrats — The Bulwark have made roughly the same argument. The problem is, not all Democrats are Joe Biden, and Americans vote for far more positions than just the presidency. …


Heading into the final weekend, one thing we can say for certain: the polls have not tightened, and Joe Biden is the overwhelming favorite to be the next President. But what exactly are the polls saying?

Polls are accurate within their margin of error, which is usually around 4%. So, if you are ahead by more than 4% you will win, unless the polls are flat wrong, which is very rare.

Today Joe Biden is ahead by 9–10 points nationally, and ahead by well more than 4 points in states with 280 electoral votes, 10 more than he needs. He…


With one week to go this race is not close; it hasn’t been close for months, and it shows no sign of becoming close. Last night was Trump’s best chance to change the trajectory of the race, and he failed, with every poll showing Joe Biden the winner of the final debate. So, here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 15, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ and modeling done by LeanTossUp https://leantossup.ca/us-presidency/

In addition to the constant stream of presidential and senate polls, we are now getting reports on the internet of congressional district…


A lot happened this week, but in terms of polling, not much changed, which is really, really bad news for Donald Trump. With two weeks to go this race is not close; and it shows no sign of tightening. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 15, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

This week I moved North Carolina from Lean Biden to Likely Biden (Biden has been ahead in the last 9 polls there) and moved Ohio back Toss Up. (See map)

Summary

· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states…


The bottom fell out on the Trump campaign this week. The first debate and his COVID diagnosis fiasco, caused Biden’s lead in national and state polls to widen to landslide levels. And every poll shows Kamala Harris winning the VP debate. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 8, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

This week I moved Georgia and North Carolina from Toss Up to Lean Biden, and moved Florida from Lean Biden to Likely Biden.

Summary

· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states with 320 electoral votes (It…


Events drive elections, and Trump contracting COVID-19 is certainly a notable event. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 1, before this news became public. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

Three big things this week:

1. Several polls in Pennsylvania have pushed Biden’s lead there outside the margin of error.

2. Biden has led in the last 5 polls in Ohio. I have moved Ohio to Lean Biden

3. And every poll showed Biden winning the first debate. It was a very good week for Team Joe.

Summary

· Biden is ahead outside the…


Let’s start with some basics on polling. Polls are very, very accurate within their margin of error (MOE) What this means is that if a poll’s MOE is 4%, and your candidate is ahead by 2% , there is roughly a 95% probability that your candidate’s vote total is going to fall within a range of +6% to -2%. 4% is a pretty common MOE, so if Trump or Biden are ahead by 4% or more in a state, they would win that state if the election were held today.

Second point on polling: The best way to look at…


60 days to go. We are now past both conventions. Here is the state of the race based on the 270toWin polling averages as of September 2nd https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

There has been a very, very small amount of movement towards Trump over the past 30 days. I have moved Minnesota from Likely Biden to Lean Biden. I have moved Ohio and Texas from Toss Up to Lean Trump. But that’s it. The basic pattern has not changed. Biden is comfortably ahead nationally, and in the electoral college, and the Democrats are on track to win majorities in both houses of Congress.


America is not just in the middle of a national election during a worldwide pandemic; we are in the midst of a political realignment. We are transitioning to a new party system, the seventh in our nation’s history. Joe Biden’s Democratic presidential nomination victory gives us a sense of how that system could look.

I spent 37 years on the political battlefield, both as an elected official and as a Republican state party chairman. For the past several years I have taught graduate-level public affairs classes at the University of Washington and Seattle University. …

Chris Vance

Former Washington State Republican lawmaker and State Party Chairman. Republican nominee for the US Senate in 2016. Now an independent.

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