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A lot happened this week, but in terms of polling, not much changed, which is really, really bad news for Donald Trump. With two weeks to go this race is not close; and it shows no sign of tightening. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 15, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

This week I moved North Carolina from Lean Biden to Likely Biden (Biden has been ahead in the last 9 polls there) and moved Ohio back Toss Up. (See map)

Summary

· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states with 335 electoral votes (It takes 270 to win) Add in Lean Biden Georgia, and Biden is at 351. …


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The bottom fell out on the Trump campaign this week. The first debate and his COVID diagnosis fiasco, caused Biden’s lead in national and state polls to widen to landslide levels. And every poll shows Kamala Harris winning the VP debate. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 8, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

This week I moved Georgia and North Carolina from Toss Up to Lean Biden, and moved Florida from Lean Biden to Likely Biden.

Summary

· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states with 320 electoral votes (It takes 270 to win) Add in Lean Biden states Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia, and Biden is at 369. …


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Events drive elections, and Trump contracting COVID-19 is certainly a notable event. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 1, before this news became public. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

Three big things this week:

1. Several polls in Pennsylvania have pushed Biden’s lead there outside the margin of error.

2. Biden has led in the last 5 polls in Ohio. I have moved Ohio to Lean Biden

3. And every poll showed Biden winning the first debate. It was a very good week for Team Joe.

Summary

· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states with 292 electoral votes (It takes 270 to win) Add in Ohio and Biden is at 309. …

About

Chris Vance

Former Washington State Republican lawmaker and State Party Chairman. Republican nominee for the US Senate in 2016. Now an independent.

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