Bad News for Trump: Nothing Changed This Week

A lot happened this week, but in terms of polling, not much changed, which is really, really bad news for Donald Trump. With two weeks to go this race is not close; and it shows no sign of tightening. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 15, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

This week I moved North Carolina from Lean Biden to Likely Biden (Biden has been ahead in the last 9 polls there) and moved Ohio back Toss Up. (See map)

Summary

· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states with 335 electoral votes (It takes 270 to win) Add in Lean Biden Georgia, and Biden is at 351.

· Biden is ahead by an average of 10 points nationally, but some polls have shown leads up to 17 points

· Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to flip the Senate, assuming they lose their Alabama seat as expected. D challengers are ahead outside the MOE in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine, and now, Iowa. The races in R seats in Georgia, Montana, South Carolina, and ALASKA are all very close. A Democratic Senate appears virtually inevitable.

· And in this atmosphere, it is likely Republicans will lose seats in the US House and the Washington State legislature.

Bottom line: Today, we are one week closer to a Democratic landslide. Time is running out. I will check in again next Friday.

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