Final Friday Poll Update: Tightening? No. Big Blue Wave? Almost Certainly
Heading into the final weekend, one thing we can say for certain: the polls have not tightened, and Joe Biden is the overwhelming favorite to be the next President. But what exactly are the polls saying?
Polls are accurate within their margin of error, which is usually around 4%. So, if you are ahead by more than 4% you will win, unless the polls are flat wrong, which is very rare.
Today Joe Biden is ahead by 9–10 points nationally, and ahead by well more than 4 points in states with 280 electoral votes, 10 more than he needs. He will win, unless something dramatic happens in the final days, or there is a polling error the likes of which we have never seen. Let’s break that down. Here is the situation as of Friday morning:
· Biden can count on 218 electoral votes from states that are safe for Democrats, and the single congressional district votes in Maine and Nebraska.
· Biden is ahead by 8–9 points in Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. His lead in the Great Lakes region is greater than Trump’s lead in Missouri or Indiana. That gets him to 254 votes.
· He is up 6–7 points in Nevada. Clinton won Nevada, and Biden has been ahead there consistently. That’s 6 more votes.
· Which brings us to Pennsylvania, the state everyone seems worried about. Well, Biden has led by 6.5% in the last 4 polls there, and has led in every poll but two done there since Labor Day. Biden is on track to pick up Pennsylvania’s 20 votes, and that gets him to 280 and victory.
So, 280 is Biden’s floor as of today. How high is his ceiling?
· Biden is up an average of 2 points in Florida, but yesterday the highly respected Monmouth poll showed him up 5, and Marist has him up 4. Biden has led in 8 of the last 10 Florida polls. Florida is Likely Biden.
· Biden is up 3 points in Georgia, but Monmouth shows him up 5. Biden has led the last 4 polls released in Georgia. Likely Biden.
· Biden is up 3 in the latest NY Times poll of North Carolina, and he has led there in 7 of the last 10 polls. Also, Likely Biden.
· Biden’s average lead is only 3 points in Arizona where there hasn’t been much high-quality polling recently, but the most recent poll has him up 6, and he has led there consistently. Call it Lean Biden.
So, Biden is ahead in states with 351 electoral votes. Ohio and Iowa remain toss ups. Texas slightly leans to Trump. Biden could end up with 413 electoral votes.
Oh, and turnout is off the charts, especially among Black voters and young voters. This is what a wave looks like.
Democrats appear on track to flip the Senate; and add 5–15 seats to their House majority.
And here at home, Jay Inslee will be reelected. Democrats will continue to enjoy big majorities in the legislature
Bottom line: As of today, the big blue wave is still coming. The only thing that can save Trump is some tremendous late shift, or the most massive polling error of all time. I will continue to post updates as significant polls come in.