With one week to go this race is not close; it hasn’t been close for months, and it shows no sign of becoming close. Last night was Trump’s best chance to change the trajectory of the race, and he failed, with every poll showing Joe Biden the winner of the final debate. So, here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 15, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ and modeling done by LeanTossUp https://leantossup.ca/us-presidency/
In addition to the constant stream of presidential and senate polls, we are now getting reports on the internet of congressional district polls all trending towards the Democrats. This is what a wave looks like.
I made no changes in the map this week, but it is important to understand that Biden’s lead has really firmed up in the Midwest: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. There is no plausible path for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes without winning at least one of those states, and right now he isn’t close in any of them. (See map)
· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states with 335 electoral votes (It takes 270 to win) Add in Lean Biden Georgia, and Biden is at 351. Only Iowa and Ohio are toss ups, and Trump must win them both.
· Biden is ahead by an average of 10 points nationally.
· Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to flip the Senate, assuming they lose their Alabama seat as expected. D challengers are ahead outside the MOE in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine. The races in R seats in Iowa, Georgia, Montana, South Carolina, Alaska, and now MISSISSIPPI are all very close. A Democratic Senate appears virtually inevitable.
· And in this atmosphere, it is likely Republicans will lose seats in the US House and the Washington State legislature.
Bottom line: As of today the big blue wave is still coming. I will check in again next Friday; and will be posting updates every day as we get significant polling data.