Events drive elections, and Trump contracting COVID-19 is certainly a notable event. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 1, before this news became public. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
Three big things this week:
1. Several polls in Pennsylvania have pushed Biden’s lead there outside the margin of error.
2. Biden has led in the last 5 polls in Ohio. I have moved Ohio to Lean Biden
3. And every poll showed Biden winning the first debate. It was a very good week for Team Joe.
· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states with 292 electoral votes (It takes 270 to win) Add in Ohio and Biden is at 309.
· Biden is ahead by 9 points nationally
· Texas is Lean Trump. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa are toss ups
· Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to flip the Senate, assuming they lose their Alabama seat as expected. D challengers are ahead outside the MOE in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine. The races in R seats in Iowa, Georgia, Montana, South Carolina, and now ALASKA are all very close. A Democratic Senate appears very likely.
· And in this atmosphere, there is no chance Republicans will take back the US House or make significant gains in Washington state races.
Bottom line: The Big Blue Wave got bigger and bluer this week, and we are now past the first debate, which was Trump’s best shot to change the trajectory of the race. He didn’t do that. I will check in again next Friday.