60 days to go. We are now past both conventions. Here is the state of the race based on the 270toWin polling averages as of September 2nd https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
There has been a very, very small amount of movement towards Trump over the past 30 days. I have moved Minnesota from Likely Biden to Lean Biden. I have moved Ohio and Texas from Toss Up to Lean Trump. But that’s it. The basic pattern has not changed. Biden is comfortably ahead nationally, and in the electoral college, and the Democrats are on track to win majorities in both houses of Congress.
Biden leads nationally by 8%, just as he did 30 days ago. His lead is still three times larger than the lead Clinton had on election day 2016.
In the electoral college Biden is clearly ahead in states adding up to 319 electoral votes, 49 over the magic number 270. Trump’s path to victory is very narrow:
· Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, states Republicans thought they could count on, are all competitive. Trump needs to win them all.
· Trump is trailing outside the margin of error in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona. Biden has smaller leads in Minnesota and North Carolina.
For Trump to come back and win he must pull off the following:
· First, hold onto Texas, Georgia, and Ohio, where he is barely ahead now.
· Then win Minnesota and North Carolina, where Biden has small leads
· THEN he must win at least two — three if he loses Florida — of the five battlegrounds where Biden has a solid lead today, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
Trump will lose the popular vote. To have any chance of pulling off another electoral college squeaker he needs to get Biden’s national lead under 5%. The election isn’t over, but again, Trump’s path is very steep and narrow.
In the Senate, the situation hasn’t changed in the past month. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to gain a majority, assuming Biden wins and there is a Democratic VP breaking ties. Republicans will likely lose seats in Arizona and Colorado but gain a seat in Alabama. Republican seats in Montana, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Kansas (!) and both seats in Georgia (!!) are all highly competitive. If there is a Blue/Biden wave it is hard to imagine that the Ds will not pick at least two of those seven seats. The Senate is likely to flip.
And in this atmosphere, there is no chance Republicans will take back the US House or make significant gains in the Washington state races.
Bottom line: Last month I said a Blue Wave was on the horizon. Now it is 30 days closer.