Poll Update: The Bottom Has Fallen Out for Trump

The bottom fell out on the Trump campaign this week. The first debate and his COVID diagnosis fiasco, caused Biden’s lead in national and state polls to widen to landslide levels. And every poll shows Kamala Harris winning the VP debate. Here is the state of the race based primarily on the 270toWin polling averages as of October 8, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

This week I moved Georgia and North Carolina from Toss Up to Lean Biden, and moved Florida from Lean Biden to Likely Biden.

Summary

· Biden is ahead outside the margin of error in states with 320 electoral votes (It takes 270 to win) Add in Lean Biden states Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia, and Biden is at 369.

· Biden is ahead by 11 points nationally

· Texas is Lean Trump. Iowa is a toss-up. Those may be the next two states to slide to Biden.

· Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to flip the Senate, assuming they lose their Alabama seat as expected. D challengers are ahead outside the MOE in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine. The races in R seats in Iowa, Georgia, Montana, South Carolina, and now ALASKA are all very close. A Democratic Senate appears very likely.

· And in this atmosphere, it is likely Republicans will lose seats in the US House and the Washington State legislature.

Bottom line: Today, we are on track for a Democratic landslide. Can Trump and the GOP stop the bleeding and fight back? Time is running out. I will check in again next Friday.

Former Washington State Republican lawmaker and State Party Chairman. Republican nominee for the US Senate in 2016. Now an independent.

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